vendredi 6 décembre 2013

Why Quant. Funds Expect Finisar To Drift Higher After The Market Opens


Finisar (FNSR) just posted monster earnings after the close. Finisar, the world's largest manufacturer of optical communication components and subsystems released their quarterly earnings on Thursday beating Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines. While these numbers crushed the Wall Street consensus how do they compare to Buy Side and Independent analysts' expectations and what does that mean we can expect from the stock over the next few days?


The following information is derived from data submitted to the Estimize platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors. image


Over the past 4 months we saw upward earnings revisions from both Wall Street and Estimize analysts. In the beginning of December we saw the Wall Street estimate remain flat while the Estimize consensus upgraded its forecasts significantly. The Estimize consensus is more accurate than Wall Street 69.5% of the time because it represents unbiased market expectations. By tapping into a wider distribution of contributors, including hedge fund analysts, asset management firm analysts, industry experts, and students Estimize is better able to capture the true market outlook. The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In the two trading days leading into the report the market may have baked in the increasingly bullish analyst sentiment as evidenced by the Estimize consensus' upward revision. Between Wednesday and Thursday the price per share surged from $19.63 to $22.12.


Going into the report Wall Street analysts were expecting 39c EPS and $286.17M revenue while the consensus from Estimize was 41c EPS and $290.99M revenue. After the close on Thursday FNSR reported a huge 43c EPS and $290.722M revenue making the Estimize consensus more accurate on both counts.image


So what can we expect from FNSR over the next few days? Based on our quantitative research we have found that if you benchmark against the market on average when a firm beats the Estimize consensus the stock price tends to drift upward over the next 3 trading days once the market reopens.


Source: Why Quant. Funds Expect Finisar To Drift Higher After The Market Opens






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