In October Total (TOT) started setting up its Fort Hill project, which will start production in 2017. Total has a share of around 39.2% along with Suncor (SU), which has a 40.2% interest in the project. Total made its way into the Fort Hill project by buying out the interest of UTS for around $1.5 billion in 2010. The Fort Hill oil sand mining project in located in Alberta, Canada and is expected to produce around 180,000 barrels per day, or bpd, of bitumen. At this production rate, the project will have a life of more than 50 years. Project construction will cost around $12.95 billion. The Fort Hill project is located in the Atabasca oil sands. In Canada, the oil sands have a total deposit of around 168 billion barrels while the potential reserve could reach as high as 1.8 trillion barrels. About 80% of oil sands deposits lie in the Athabasca region.
The cost of extraction from the oil sands of Alberta ranges between $50 per barrel to around $90 per barrel when compared to the oil production from North Dakota's Bakken, which ranges between $70 per barrel to $90 per barrel. If we look at the current and next year's prices this would give an idea of profitability of the project. According to the EIA, the WTI prices next year will be around $95 per barrel, while it will be around $97 per barrel by the end of this year. At WTI prices above $90 per barrel, Total could realize a significant amount of margin and would have a quality cash flow.
In addition to the attractive production cost, another factor would be transportation of bitumen to the refineries. An easy movement of oil from this region will reduce the probability of a supply bottleneck and should mean easy access to the final market. Bottlenecks in supply have a drastic effect on Canadian crude prices; it pushed prices as low as $40 per barrel compared to the WTI prices. According to IHS, the Canadian railroads will be able to carry out around 450,000 barrels a day out of Canada's oil field, which is currently at 150,000 barrels per day.
In addition to the Fort Hill project, Suncor also invested in a number of projects to develop the oil sands. The production from oil sands is a major source of revenue for the company. The company has around 6.9 billion barrels of reserves and 23.5 billion barrels of contingent resources in the Canadian oil sands. Suncor produces bitumen both through mining and in situ production. In situ production process is generally used to extract bitumen, which is found 200 feet below the surface. As of October this year, Suncor's daily production from the oil sands is around 347,000 bpd. With the Fort Hill project coming into operation, the daily production from the oil sands is bound to increase.
Solar power and cleaner revenues
In addition to investing in the oil sands, Total is also investing into development of clean energy. This month, the South African government awarded Total the contract to develop a solar power generation plant located in Prieska, South Africa. The solar power plant is expected to generate around 210 gigawatt-hours, or GWh, of electricity per annum. This power plant is expected to provide electricity to around 45,000 South Africans. Total owns around 27% of the project with other partners owning the rest of the project. The company's entry into the South African solar power generation market is beneficial as this market is one of the fastest growing markets to use solar power for electricity generation. Last year the solar power market in South Africa was valued at $5.7 billion and is expected to grow further. South Africa's government is focusing on the development of cleaner energy to generate around 18 gigawatts, or GW, by 2030. Currently the photovoltaic assembly capacity in South Africa is around 5 megawatts, or MW.
The cost of the project is around $200 million. The South Africa Photovoltaic Industry Association, or SAPVIA, estimates that coal-fired electricity would cost around $0.171 per kilowatt hour, or kwh, by 2020, while the cost of solar power generation could reach around the range of $0.075 per kwh to $0.127 per kwh by 2018. I think this would give Total an early mover advantage in the South African solar power market, which is still in its growing phase.
A stable growth story
Total is diversifying its asset base not only geographically but is also foraying into different sources of power generation. The company's Fort Hill project will be able to deliver long term growth due to reserve availability in the region. In addition to the reserve potential, the project economics are attractive because of competitive cost of production. The project is less likely face supply bottlenecks because of the expandable capacity of the railroads. So with attractive economics and transport infrastructure available, the project will provide growth to the company's cash flow in the coming quarters.
Total's solar power project in South Africa also has attractive returns because solar powered electricity is in its initial stages there with significant room for growth. Total's early entry, will provide returns in the long run. Currently the company's stock trades at a price-to-book, or P/B, value of 1.45. The prospect of these two projects is expected to drive down the P/B value in the coming quarters, which in turn makes the stock attractive at current market prices.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)
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