Here is a look at how Monsanto Company (MON) fares in ModernGraham's opinion, based on an updated and modernized version of Benjamin Graham's requirements of defensive and enterprising investors from The Intelligent Investor:
Defensive and Enterprising Investor Tests (What is the significance of these tests, and what is PEmg ratio?) :
Defensive Investor - must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise - market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition - current ratio greater than 2 - PASS
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - PASS
- Dividend Record - has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
- Earnings Growth - earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio - PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets - PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - FAIL
Enterprising Investor - must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 - current ratio greater than 1.5 - PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 - Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - PASS
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - PASS
- Dividend Record - currently pays a dividend - PASS
- Earnings growth - EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS
Valuation Summary (Explanation of the ModernGraham Valuation Model)
Key Data:
| MG Value | $67.30 |
| MG Opinion | Overvalued |
| Value Based on 3% Growth | $52.88 |
| Value Based on 0% Growth | $31.00 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 11.51% |
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | $3.73 |
| PEmg | 31.52 |
| Current Ratio | 2.32 |
| PB Ratio | 4.84 |
Balance Sheet - 8/31/2013
| Current Assets | $10,077,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | $4,336,000,000 |
| Total Debt | $2,061,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $20,664,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $4,746,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $8,105,000,000 |
| Outstanding Shares | 529,030,000 |
Earnings Per Share
| 2013 | $4.58 |
| 2012 | $3.78 |
| 2011 | $2.96 |
| 2010 | $2.01 |
| 2009 | $3.78 |
| 2008 | $3.59 |
| 2007 | $1.66 |
| 2006 | $1.27 |
| 2005 | $0.29 |
| 2004 | $0.51 |
| 2003 | $0.00 |
| 2002 | $0.28 |
Earnings Per Share - Modern Graham
| 2013 | $3.65 |
| 2012 | $3.19 |
| 2011 | $2.87 |
| 2010 | $2.70 |
| 2009 | $2.74 |
| 2008 | $1.97 |
Conclusion:
Monsanto Company passes all of the requirements of the Enterprising Investor, but not the Defensive Investor. The company currently has PEmg and PB ratios that are too high for that investor type. However, the Enterprising Investor is willing to take on a little more risk and as a result has some less stringent requirements. The company has a strong dividend history and stable earnings growth, a very good current ratio and low debt. As a result, Enterprising Investors should feel comfortable proceeding with further research, perhaps beginning with a review of ModernGraham's valuation of Du Pont (DD). From the valuation side of things, the market is currently implying a growth rate of 11.51% and while there has been substantial growth in earnings, the historical performance does not support the implied growth rate. Consequently, the company would appear to be overvalued today and Enterprising Investors may wish to wait for a better opportunity for profit.
Disclosure: The author did not hold a position in Monsanto Company (MON) at the time of publication and had no intention of entering into a position within the next 72 hours.
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service — if this is your content and you're reading it on someone else's site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire