It is understandable that you could be pessimistic about the outlook for the European new vehicle market. After all, 2013 saw the lowest sales level across Europe since the economic crisis began, with sales of just 13.7 million vehicles - a far cry from the more than 18 million vehicles sold in 2007 - and with sales declining every year since 2008. While the market might now have hit rock bottom and some improvement is expected in 2014, recovery will be modest with volumes increasing to about 15 million vehicles a year by mid-decade, by Ford's (F) projection.
Nevertheless, what can initially appear as a huge challenge for the industry also is potentially a great opportunity to re-assess the capabilities of the industry to improve its global competitiveness and its business acumen.
For example, the severe decline in the European new vehicle market has led some auto manufacturers - including Ford - to reassess their business strategy in the face of this new reality of lower total demand. This has meant a reduction in production capacity in Europe - in Ford's case, by approximately 18 percent by the end of 2014. With overproduction in Europe when the market was at 18 million units, there is a good case to argue that the industry still has overcapacity on the continent.
While total sales are down, that does not mean that opportunities do not exist within Europe. For one thing, it is important to define exactly what we mean by Europe. The decline we have witnessed in recent years has taken its toll mainly in the older, more established markets of Western Europe, with countries such as Italy, Spain and France seeing significant reductions in total vehicle sales.
Yet, if we have a broader definition of the European market to encompass growth markets such as Russia, Turkey, and Eastern Europe, a somewhat different picture emerges. At Ford, we have seen the sharpest decline in our 20 traditional, primarily Western European markets, but our wider European region covers 50 markets in total. While some of these markets can be volatile, I believe this greater Europe region presents a significant opportunity for profitability and expect sales to grow by approximately 20 percent to something close to 23 million in the coming years.
These markets already are important to Ford. In 2013, our third- and fourth-largest sales markets in Europe were Turkey and Russia, respectively, and many analysts still expect Russia to overtake Germany as Europe's largest national car market within the next few years. So, it is important as we study the industry in Europe that we look beyond the usual confines of what many believe "Europe" to be - namely the traditional, largely Western European markets - and focus on the wider European region as a whole.
Even in the traditional markets, however, there is room for potential profitable growth in higher value sales channels despite the overall decline they have endured in recent years.
Dealer self-registrations - often used for demonstration vehicles - and daily rental sales have been a feature of the European vehicle market for a number of decades, but are largely driven by volume and share objectives than by good, profitable business sense. While overall market share for a brand is important - and there are limits below which you would not want to fall because it can undermine brand strength and visibility in a market - at the end of the day, an overall market share maintenance or gain at the expense of profitability is just not good business sense. "Buying" market share through heavy discounting to customers also erodes the brand cache, endangering the brand with the threat of being labelled as "cheaper", thereby making it even harder to improve margins.
This is why a central theme of Ford's strategy in Europe is to improve our penetration of higher value sales channels, such as retail sales - vehicle sales to private customers walking into our dealerships and who have the choice to spend their money on whatever brand of vehicle they desire - and good fleet sales.
Retail customers often prefer higher specification levels of equipment and options to further personalize their vehicles, satisfying their needs while improving margins for the car company and the dealer. In a similar vein, fleet business sales - vehicle sales to businesses providing vehicles to their employees or for company use - can also be a strong revenue and profit generator if it avoids unreasonable discounting.
As the percentage of retail sales and positive fleet sales grow, even in a static or declining market, they can help offset overall volume decline. Effectively, you might be selling less vehicles overall, but the margins per vehicle are higher. Plus, as retail and positive fleet business grows as a percentage of a brand's overall business, so its share of the less profitable dealer self-registrations and daily rental market decline.
In 2013, Ford sales to retail and fleet customers increased 7 percentage points to 73 percent of our total sales in Europe - a full two percentage points above the industry average. Ford sales to lower revenue streams, such as daily rentals and dealer registrations, declined from 34 percent in 2012 to 27 percent last year. This is a trend we want to continue as we move forward.
There are other market opportunities, too, despite the difficulties of the European situation. The commercial vehicle market is showing signs of improvement - an important consideration as commercial vehicle sales often are a predictor of overall economic well-being, with more being sold as businesses re-invest in the face of economic improvement. This is, again, an area where Ford has focused its efforts, re-inventing and adding to our entire commercial vehicle range during the past two years, helping to push our commercial vehicle sales up by 27 percent and at a market share of 9.2 percent in 2013 - the highest level since 2007.
The Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV) segment of the market also is growing compared with other market segments in Europe. We said at the end of 2012 that we expected the total SUV segment to grow by approximately one-third during the next five years, with sales of small SUVs doubling in size, and this indeed appears to be the case. This is great news for Ford, and we are taking advantage of our historical strengths in SUVs and rapidly expanding our SUV vehicle offerings in the European market.
Another interesting opportunity for growth is in the upper echelon of the volume brand large car segment in Europe. We know from our own experience at Ford that in many market segments that we compete in that there is a healthy mix of high-end series vehicles. Trends in society and our own customers show us that there is a strong demand for high-specification vehicles and an individual purchase and ownership experience, especially in the volume large car segment where more than 50 percent of our customers opt for the highest specification models.
Further, we believe that approximately 10 to 15 percent of volume large car buyers want to take this high-end experience to an even greater level as consumer expectations change and people look for a more individual relationship with brands while still expecting good value, great quality and high levels of technology.
This is the inspiration behind our Vignale experience, which we will launch early in 2015 on the all-new Ford Mondeo, with 50 percent being about providing customers with a distinctive and discerning, high quality vehicle, and the other 50 percent being a very individual ownership experience intended to preserve as much of the customers' precious time as possible: from a stress-free purchase experience at the Ford dealership, through to personalized services that we are developing with our dealers around sales and services (e.g. collect and delivery services) and exclusive ownership experiences. We think this will be an industry-leading concept.
This last point also brings into sharp focus the two key elements that are at the center of all the elements of potential growth that I have touched: product and brand. Even in the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Second World War, we believed that it was vital to continue to invest in new vehicles and technologies. Customers continue to want the best and the latest regardless of the economic situation, and they will vote with their cash if a product does not live up to their expectations, taking their money elsewhere. Also, by investing in new products, companies are in a better position to reap any benefits of improvements in demand as a recovery comes into play.
At Ford, for example, this has meant committing to launch at least 25 new vehicles in Europe in the five years from October 2012, with more than 10 coming in 2014 alone. It is these new vehicles that are helping to drive our share improvements in retail, fleet and commercial vehicle sales. This phenomenon is not just limited to Ford - those auto companies that have invested in new products appear, in general, to have healthier sales and a stronger balance sheet than those who have cut back on investment in their products.
New and better vehicles might be the driver behind improved sales, but it is imperative that they go hand-in-hand with great customer service. It does not matter how great a car might be, if the customer experiences poor service from the company or its dealer, then the chances are he or she will look elsewhere for a new vehicle.
In this respect, the European industry has made significant advances in consumer satisfaction during the past decade, but it still needs to go further. The consumer experience in virtually every walk of life has changed fundamentally in the past 20 years, both with the advent of digital technology and the online experience, but also as the online digital experience becomes an increasing part of the retail experience.
At Ford, during the next year, we will introduce changes in our Ford dealerships across Europe. We are transforming the customer experience with new-look dealerships, offering a significantly enhanced retail experience, plus improved online portals. Greater use of more customer-friendly digital technology will be an important part of the customer experience both in our dealerships and online. For example, if today a customer accesses ford.com through their device they will have a vastly improved online experience from even just six months ago.
Our aim is to strengthen the bond between the customer and their dealer, and the company, thereby strengthening the brand and spurring growth.
To conclude, it is very clear that it will take a long time for the European new vehicle market to recover to pre-crisis levels, if at all. Changing demographics and continuing weak economies - especially in Southern Europe - for many years to come might mean that an annual market of more than 18 million sales no longer is feasible in the traditional European markets. Yet, there still is the prospect of significant growth in the wider European market, coupled with targeted opportunities for improvement in the retail, fleet, commercial vehicle, SUV and larger car upmarket segments in the traditional markets.
Nevertheless, while auto companies will have to cut their cloth accordingly to fit with the new reality of a 15 million or so market for the foreseeable future, the glass is still half full rather than half empty when it comes to potential opportunities for today and the immediate future.
Disclosure: I am long F. (More...)
Business relationship disclosure: Roelant de Waard is Vice President of Marketing, Sales and Service, Ford of Europe
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