Cramer's Mad Money - I'm Worried About Tesla (2/25/14)

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday February 25.

I'm Worried About Tesla (TSLA). Other stocks mentioned: Qualcomm (QCOM), InterMune (ITMN), Priceline (PCLN).

Cramer is concerned that Tesla (TSLA) rallied 14% on an analyst call. A Morgan Stanley analyst raised estimates, and while the analyst has been right to have been bullish so far, to meet these estimates, TSLA will have to produce batteries at a "mythological" pace. The resemblance to the fateful Qualcomm (QCOM) call in the dot.com era is too close for comfort. QCOM was trading at $500, and rose 30% when slapped with a $1,000 price target. Granted, the analyst was right about QCOM's story, since it survived the dot.com crash to emerge as a leader, but he wasn't correct about the inflated price target. Cramer cautioned viewers to "stay focused," and beware of overly exuberant price targets for hot stocks.

Cramer took some calls:

InterMune (ITMN) is up 107%, has a drug likely to get FDA approval, but Cramer would take some profits, because it is expensive.

Priceline (PCLN) not that expensive, but price tag makes it look high. Wait for a pullback.

We Need A Market That Makes Sense: Macy's (M), Home Depot (HD), Boeing (BA), Disney (DIS), Starbucks (SBUX), Netflix (NFLX), LinkedIn (LNKD), Zulily (ZU), Amazon (AMZN), Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS), EOG Resources (EOG), Salesforce.com (CRM)

With the Dow dropping 26 points on Tuesday, Cramer sees two tracks in the market: the track of sanity and the track of recklessness. Stocks should go higher on good news and lower on bad news. However, it wasn't illogical that Macy's (M) and Home Depot (HD) failed to drop after disappointing data, because there were some bright spots. They didn't have to discount merchandise even though traffic was slow. It was reasonable that Boeing (BA) declined on worries of Dreamliner sales, Starbucks (SBUX) dipped on gross margins concerns and Disney (DIS) finally took a breather after a non-stop rally after reporting a few weeks ago. Cramer thinks these 3 stocks may be bought on these declines. It makes sense to take profits in high-flying Netflix (NFLX), which has jumped 120 points in just 5 weeks, and Cramer has concerns about "hot" stock Tesla. LinkedIn (LNKD) rallied on a China initiative, but this news had already been released and was not unexpected. Zulily (ZU) is giving Amazon (AMZN) a run for its money, and should trade higher.

Cramer took some calls:

Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS) didn't meet estimates, and like many oil service companies, is in the doldrums. Cramer prefers EOG Resources (EOG) which shot the lights out of its earnings, but is up only $3.

Salesforce.com (CRM) has great management, and Cramer is long-term bullish, but it has risen a lot and may dip on its earnings on Thursday, even if it beats estimates.

CEO Interview: Patrick Doyle, Domino's Pizza (DPZ)

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) has delivered a 700% return with re-invested dividends since Cramer got behind it four years ago, and has risen 15.5% since October. DPZ beat earnings by 2 cents on higher than expected revenues. Domestic same store sales were up 3.7%, and international same store sales rose 7%. CEO Patrick Doyle commented that the company has seen positive international same store sales for 80 consecutive quarters. Management raised the dividend by 25%. Doyle discussed the transition from phone orders to digital; a full 40% of orders are made digitally, and these orders are quicker and lead to fewer errors. 2013 was the best year for domestic store growth since 2006, but DPZ is putting up more stores overseas than in the U.S. Cramer is bullish on DPZ.

Where Treasurys Are Headed

The bond market is important to understand for those who want to predict the direction of stocks. According to technical analyst Bob Lang, treasury yields are likely to go higher, but Cramer cautioned they shouldn't rise too far too fast, or that will be bad news for stocks. However, a modest rise in interest rates will be good for the financials.

The daily chart of the interest rate on the 10 year treasury indicates it could rise from 2.7% to 3%, according to Lang's analysis. There is a reverse head and shoulders pattern, a reliably bullish signal, and a crossover in the MACD indicator. The last time there was a crossover, rates rose. The weekly chart of the 10 year treasury yield is showing higher highs and lower lows and has a golden cross of the 50 day moving average over the 200 day moving average. The 5 year treasury yield shows a W pattern, which indicates a potential rebound.

CEO Phil Fernandez, Marketo (MKTO). Other stock mentioned: General Electric (GE)

Marketo (MKTO) is redefining tech trends through the cloud. MKTO is a cloud-based marketing company that helps clients streamline and automate marketing. It rose 77% on its IPO and has gained 24% since August. It reported a larger than expected loss, and the stock fell 2.7%. However, it is not useful to judge young, fast growing companies by earnings, but by revenue growth, which in the case of MKTO, has grown 67% yoy, with an 85% increase in billings and a 100% rise in deferred revenue. CEO Phil Fernandez discussed the emphasis on R&D and growing the client base. Marketo has many high profile clients, including General Electric (GE), and far from regarding Salesforce as a competitor, Marketo's clients can integrate existing Salesforce products with Marketo's.

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Source: Cramer's Mad Money - I'm Worried About Tesla (2/25/14)

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